Readers of these pages will know that I’ve spent very little time writing about Dan Maes, mostly because despite his performance at the assembly, I didn’t think he could win the primary. Well, the shoe is on the other hand now, and one would have to think that Dan Maes is the favorite to win the primary election with the ballots about to be mailed around the state. Therefore, I should probably start thinking about Maes a little. Here, then, for the few of you who are interested, are my initial pros and cons of Dan Maes:

Pros:

• A fresh face, and obviously a lot of energy to put into the campaign (and the job)
• Already has fairly strong Tea Party support, though probably a bit less than it used to be
• Seems to be improving as a candidate
• Not a “career politician” or “insider", both of which are anchors weighing down candidates around the country

Cons:

• Essentially zero relevant experience
• A resume which may be susceptible to tearing apart by opposition research; many of us wonder if he has exaggerated the degree to which he is a successful businessman (the problem would not be the level of success but the exaggeration)
• At least a question of competence given the large campaign finance reporting fines, though his explanation of that whole mess is, on its face, reasonable
• Unwillingness to disclose personal or campaign financial records
• Question whether he can raise enough money to win the general election

At the end the day, I don’t love the idea of an extremely messy process, which a primary followed by the winner dropping out to be replaced by someone else would be.  But we can not let this race be won by John Hickenlooper.

My gut instinct is that Maes cannot beat Hickenlooper, that he’s vulnerable on too many fronts, and that the GOP has a better chance with a new candidate.

For those who agree with me, and I realize that many of my readers don’t, this brings up a very difficult question:

If you think that Maes has a better chance of beating Hick than McInnis does, but if you think that another candidate has a better chance than either of them, AND if you think that there’s no chance Maes would drop out of the race after winning the primary but some chance that McInnis could be convinced to drop out, then does it make sense to vote for McInnis?  In other words, should you vote for McInnis even if you like Maes better than McInnis with a view toward getting a replacement candidate?

The huge risk here is McInnis.  My friends who have known him for a long time all say the same thing about him, almost exactly in the same words: “Scott is all about Scott."  So, betting that McInnis’ ego will allow him to be convinced to get out of the race is probably no better than a 50/50 proposition.  And I doubt whether he’d tip his hand in advance if he were thinking that way…and it’s hard to decide whether he should no matter which way you want this to go.

What a mess…thanks to the puppet-masters who pushed the almost-sure winner, Josh Penry, out of the race early on.  Maybe it’s not too late to get the guy who should have been the nominee all along back in the race, but it’s not going to happen unless one or both of the current candidates make an extremely difficult, self-less, and potentially incorrect decision.