Rossputin.com Rational Thinking About Our World

According to a new Rasmussen Reports poll, the number of Americans self-identifying as Democrats has dropped to a 4-year low of 36%.  While still 2.9% higher than the number of Republicans, the current spread is the narrowest since December, 2007.   A closer look at the numbers implies that the Dec ‘07 number of 2.1% was a remarkable outlier, since the month prior came in at 4.9% and the month after at 5.6%.  In reality, this is the narrowest gap since the first half of 2006.

For those who don’t follow this stuff closely, it should be noted that there is a persistent registration gap in favor of Democrats, but Republicans tend to have higher turnout (though not in 2008, obviously).  That’s how Republicans can win elections, sometimes by wide margins, even with more Americans being registered as Democrats.

The 33% Republican registration is within, but at the high end, of the range going back to 2006.  (In 2004 and 2005, GOP registration was closer to 35%, but fell to the 33% area with George W. Bush fatigue in early 2006.)  The 36% Democratic registration is the lowest since July, 2007, which was essentially idential at 35.9%.  Indeed, the lowest Democratic registration level going back to 2004 is 35.9% which happened 3 times (the July ‘07 reading and twice in 2005.)

In other words, the substantiall fall-off in Democratic registrations is barely benefiting GOP registration.  More former Democrats are becoming independent/unaffiliated voters rather than Republicans.  Over the past year, Republican registration is barely changed while unaffiliated voters have increased from about 25% to nearly 31%.

The implication of these numbers, particularly when combined with the much more intense feelings by anti-Obamacare voters than pro-Obamacare voters, is that Democrats may have a serious turnout problem next November.  Republicans are highly motivated.  Democrats are not so motivated; many so unmotivated that they are leaving the party.

It is always difficult to defeat an incumbent politician.  And the Democrats have an enormous 81 seat majority in the House, meaning that 42 seats or 10% would have to change from Democratic to GOP in order for the GOP to retake the majority.  (There’s a decent chance for the GOP to hold all its seats except for the RINO Joseph Cao in Louisiana.  If Cao loses, then there would need to be 43 GOP takeaways.)

In a normal year, the odds against one party picking up more than 40 seats would be at least 10:1 if not 50:1, but at Intrade.com, the contract is trading at 2:1 odds (and I’m buying some.)  (The price represents the % chance of Democrats maintaining control of the House after the November 2010 elections.)

And over the past several months, the betting on the Democrats’ chances of winning the presidency in 2012 are slightly but clearly slipping, though they have not reached the lows of the stock-market and economic meltdown earlier in the year:

In my view, the Democrats have one enormous thing to fear (at least if they want to maintain a majority in Congress): The passage of Obamacare.  If a bill anything like what we’ve seen so far gets signed by the president, 2010 will make 1994 look like a great year for Democrats.  (In 1994, the GOP picked up 54 House seats…)