Gallup poll: Bad news for Democrats
In an unusual turn of events, the most recent Gallup poll shows Republicans ahead of Democrats on Gallup’s generic Congressional ballot question, by 48% to 44%.
As we’ve seen in both the Virginia and New Jersey elections, there’s been a huge swing among independent voters, and Gallup captures that trend well, showing independent voters going from a 1% preference for the GOP to a 22% preference in just 4 months:
I would note that the poll data was mostly taken before the House passed the health care “reform” bill which has more public opposition than support.
Gallup notes in their discussion of the poll results that a GOP edge in the generic Congressional ballot question is rare and that the GOP often wins elections even when they’re down in this poll because they have better turnout.
In a sense, these statements are indictments of Gallup’s methodology of polling registered voters rather than Rasmussen’s standard of polling likely voters. Rasmussen has had the GOP ahead in the generic ballot question every week since late June, and their latest result has a large 6% lead for the GOP…again with data taken before most of the public was aware of what the House did with health care.
It is a long time until the next election, but I believe these numbers will now begin to hamper the Democrat leaders’ agenda, despite what they were able to do in the House on health care.
I would also note that political enthusiasm breeds political enthusiasm. People like to back winners and don’t like to spend their time or money backing losers. To the extent that Republican politicians seem like they can win, they will have a much easier time raising the money they need to turn that appearance into reality. On the flip side, to the extent that Democrats appear vulnerable, they will have a somewhat harder time raising money with the caveat that much of their money comes from unions who will buy their politicians in any case. Still, Obama received huge numbers of donations from private citizens, an effect which I think will all but disappear for Democratic congressional candidates in 2010.
For the record, I am betting (not big money, of course) on the GOP taking back control of the House in the 2010 elections, getting better than 2-to-1 odds. (Roughly risking $3 per contract to try to win $7 per contract.)
| Print article | This entry was posted by Rossputin on 11/11/09 at 09:59:37 am . Follow any responses to this post through RSS 2.0. |
Yours truly
-
Following Obama's Economic Policies
Facebook NetworkedBlogs
XML Feeds
11/11/09 @ 01:36:56 pm
The Dems can’t pass ObamaCare with abortion OR a public option- and reconciliation is just an empty threat, the remaining legislation would be a hollow shell-
Will they pass Cap-n-tax? With the evidence looking weak lately, Obama’s own #s tanking… and 11% unemployment? Good luck!
That leaves the only major legislation enacted -even with Democrats dominating both houses- the wholly-ineffective Porkulus. Obama has NO political cover on that one, due to the paucity of GOP collaborators- he owns it. And all it will ever stimulate is inflation… in the months leading right-up to midterms.
The Democrats look to face a bloodbath next fall, with some already predicting a 100+ seat loss.
And by 2012? People will wince at the very mention of the name “Obama”- and the GOP could take 40 states running Gilbert Gottfried- LOL
Party’s over kiddies- time to put the grown-ups back in charge...
http://reaganiterepublicanresistance.blogspot.com
11/11/09 @ 03:04:49 pm
I don't see 100 seat loss, obviously, but I am happy to add to my bet on the GOP getting back control. What I worry about more than anything in terms of the GOP's chances is the behavior of Republicans between now and then.
11/12/09 @ 04:40:34 pm
My biggest worry is that the GOP has learned nothing. While I relish the thought of a massive Democratic defeat, I'm under no illusion that the GOP will be any better than what it was a year ago.
Neither side seems to advocate limited government anymore.
11/12/09 @ 07:45:42 pm
Freak: I basically agree.
11/14/09 @ 10:16:28 am
Had the Democrats followed through on their campaign promises they would be miles ahead. Prior to the elections, voters – with the exception of those on their way to a convention of sociopaths – responded to the Platform of the Democratic Party. It called for peace, real health care reform, jobs paying family sustaining wages, and a clean-up of Wall Street and of financial institutions. Last November the people had clear choices and they chose the agenda of the Democratic Party by a large margin.
Right after the elections however, the “Blue Dogs”, the “New Democrat” dogs, and spineless dogs, began undermining the Democratic agenda and their president. Democratic leadership failed to crack the whip on their wayward miscreants.
Alas, as badly as Democrats have performed, the GOP offers little more than rumors and fear-mongering as an alternative. That’s how low politics in America has sunk.
The people still want peace, real health care reform, jobs paying family sustaining wages, and a clean-up of Wall Street and of financial institutions.
If the Democrats hope to salvage what they had on election day they had better get back on message, and had better put some action where their mouths are, damn the “Blue Dogs”, et al.
11/14/09 @ 10:46:26 am
Rich,
I disagree with your analysis.
As I've said before, the Democrats' victory was NOT a strong public embrace of their agenda. It was a well-deserved repudiation of the GOP, but that's about it.
The public was and remains center-right. Poll after poll shows that.
If the Democrats try to shove a leftist agenda down our throats, they will lose elections for a long time to come.