Iowa picks the losers
I’ll have a more in-depth analysis of Iowa soon, but the main points to make today:
Rick Perry is out and Michele Bachmann will be out within minutes of the writing of this note.
Betting odds still have Romney trading nearly 80 percent to be the nominee, with Santorum just over 5 percent. Jon Huntsman’s betting odds are up slightly, but still only about 3.5 percent. People buying Huntsman on the Iowa results are making a mistake, thinking that Romney’s vulnerability in Iowa points to a Huntsman opening in New Hampshire. It doesn’t, and Huntsman will have a difficult time getting any attention over the next week.
What are we to do? Romney is too robotic and too cautious. Santorum seems to constipated and is an insufferable moralizer.
It’s no wonder that the Iowa caucus turnout was, even though bigger than 2008, less than most people predicted.
The message is that Republicans are much less motivated by this slate of candidates than they are by beating Barack Obama. They better get more excited about someone, or we’ll have four more years of the worst president of my lifetime.
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