One of the questions that seems to be asked most lately is whether the Iowa caucus matters. The arguments for ignoring it make a lot of sense, but let me offer one suggestion as to why it could be important:

While winner of the Iowa Republican caucus has only gone on to be the GOP nominee twice in the last 5 contests in which there was not a Republican incumbent president, and while New Hampshire has only gotten it right three of those times, there was no overlap. Furthermore, nobody since 1980 has been able to win the South Carolina primary without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire. And the winner of the South Carolina primary has gone on to be the nominee every time since 1980.

So, winning either Iowa or New Hampshire does seem to be important. Furthermore, since 1980 nobody has won both during a contested year. Therefore, if Mitt Romney can win both, he can claim a level of momentum that no candidate has ever had during the current primary and caucus structure in which Iowa and New Hampshire go early.

My prediction in order of votes received:

Romney
Santorum
Paul
Perry
Gingrich
Bachmann
Huntsman

Please post a comment with your prediction!