In a must-read article for the American Spectator today, the always excellent Jed Babbin explains how the damage caused by the Obama administration to our relationship with Israel is far from just symbolic, and makes the world a much more dangerous place.

Please read and share widely:
http://spectator.org/archives/2012/02/06/pushing-israel-to-war

I have posed to questions to Jed, and he has answered. First my questions:

Is it likely that the recent language by the US and Israel regarding our view of the development of Iran’s nuclear capability is aimed to try to slow Iran somewhat (even if such a hope is utterly naive), with Obama’s team either believing there is a negotiated way to avoid a nuclear Iran or else just not caring, and with the Israelis trying to buy time until the next American election, hoping that a Republican wins the race?

Don’t forget, in 1980, the hostages who had been held by Iran for 444 days were released minutes after newly elected president Ronald Reagan was sworn in. In short, the Jimmy Carter-Barack Obama comparisons apply on international as well as domestic issues.

A follow-up question to Jed: Do you think that having a Republican president would make an important difference in Iranian behavior, or are they so hell-bent on getting a nuclear weapon that this will almost certainly require military action by the US and Israel, assuming we have an American president who understands what is at stake here, which our current president manifestly does not?

And now Jed’s responses:

Your first question is predicated on some cooperation between Israel and the US which is entirely absent. And how would those words do anything except give Iran more time to develop weapons? If the Israelis believe as, perforce, they do that the Iranians are about to enter the “zone of immunity", trying to delay until after the election would make no sense.

As to a Republican president, none from Reagan through Bush 43 have made any difference. They all say that we won’t allow Iran to have nuclear weapons, but none has done anything to prevent it. The right Republican (none of whom are running) could make the difference quickly by joining with Israel in military action.  There is no chance - zero, zip, zilch – that any diplomatic action will have any effect on Iran. As I said in the piece, there has been no successful diplomatic action with Iran since the kakistocracy took over in 1979.  I define “successful” as changing the regime’s behavior.

I asked Jed a follow-up: Does this mean that you think an Israeli first strike without US help, and possibly without US knowledge, is all but inevitable? Care to put a percentage chance on it?

Jed’s response: “That’s my whole point. They can’t rely on us, so they won’t tell us about it beforehand. I’d say it’s 70-30 at this point, and the odds get higher daily.”

Makes me want to buy oil…