Judicial showdown prediction
It's always a bit dicey making predictions, especially when it involves politicians. But I'm going to go out on a limb here...even though what I'm going to predict probably has well under a 50% chance of happening.
Republican and Democratic Senators are trying to reach a compromise whereby Democrat moderates agree to let most of Bush's current nominees get up or down votes and not to filibuster "except in extreme circumstances" and Republican moderates agree not to support the "nuclear option".
First, I predict that they will be unable to reach this compromise.
So, then what? The Democrats know that they will probably lose if the "nuclear option" is triggered. They will be left with no leverage in the likely battle over a Supreme Court nominee, the real brass ring in this political merry-go-round.
Therefore, I predict a handful of Democratic Senators will vote with Republicans to close debate on the nominations of Priscilla Owen and Janice Rogers Brown. The women will get the up or down vote they are properly due and will both be confirmed.
It wouldn't surprise me if the Democrats who have decided to vote for cloture will not make their positions known to the public before the vote... but that's not a prediction.
Tuesday should be a very interesting day in the history of the Senate. If it happens the way I predict, it would be a small victory for Republicans. If they go to the nuclear option and the Republicans lose, that will be a political disaster for the GOP, but I don't think they will go down that path unless their quite confident that it ends in victory even if that victory requires Dick Cheney casting a tie-breaking vote...which in itself will make the victory questionable from a purely political point of view. I can already picture Harry Reid exploiting that image. I hope it doesn't come to that.
|Print article||This entry was posted by Rossputin on 05/23/05 at 06:18:47 am . Follow any responses to this post through RSS 2.0.|