OK, even if I were a betting man (which I am, actually) I wouldn’t bet a lot on this longshot prediction, but here it is:

Barack Obama delayed his visit to the Copenhagen Climate Summit from December 9 to December 18, the last scheduled day of the conference.  He used a rather tortured excuse that there was “progress” happening at the talks (which seems to be anything but the case).  Since then, he’s added the more reasonable explanation that other world leaders would be there at the event’s end.  The Administration likely also believes that if an agreement is close to being achievable at the end, his very presence might be enough to push the ball over the goal line.

The talks are already having a lot of trouble, with poor nations demanding more ransom from richer nations.  The article notes that “Rich nations want to require developing nations to limit emissions, with or without financial help."  This is of course asking poor nations for economic and literal suicide as CO2 emissions correlate extremely highly with both GDP and life expectancy.  Poor nations are smart to refuse such a demand, though they’re shortsightedly stupid for wanting to agree to a cash payment in compensation for curbing their own economic and industrial development.  Cash payments can (and will) end at any time.  But one can’t suddenly make up for years of retarded development.  The poor nations’ most rational response would be to take the money and NOT slow down development.  However, if they believe that’s not possible, they should refuse the money and continue to try to develop as rapidly as possible.  That said, these countries generally have corrupt governments, so it’s not really about money going to those countries’ citizens, but into the despots’ Swiss bank accounts.  Therefore, they will work hard to get to a deal that pays them something.  With luck, ClimateGate will prevent such a deal from becoming reality.

Here’s my prediction:  The talks will be so far from having any agreement that the Administration will manufacture a mini-emergency which requires Obama’s presence in Washington, DC.  Obama can’t afford another foreign affairs failure, continuing his string of such failures.  Particularly on an issue where he has so much personal and political capital at stake.  He’ll send his apologies to Copenhagen, note that Lisa Jackson has offered a very high-level US presence, and stay away from a photo op at a deservedly-failed attempt by anti-capitalists and Third World nations to extort “climate debt” money from American taxpayers.  The event’s failure will still hurt Obama but not as much as if he attended on the last day.

Hey, if canceling an appearance at Copenhagen is good enough for Nobel Prize winner Al Gore, it should be good enough for Nobel Prize winner Barack Obama.  (Tangent: It’s true that Obama hasn’t done anything to win the award, but at least he didn’t win for an outright lie like Gore did.  It’s too bad the Nobel Peace Price has become nothing but a popularity award of Socialist International.)