As of Sunday morning, Republican Senate candidate Scott Brown is trading around 56% and Democrat Martha Coakley around 44% in political betting on Intrade.com in the race to fill the Massachusetts Senate seat formerly held by Ted Kennedy.

A few things to note about this race:

I have never seen a candidate as out of touch with a state as Coakley is with Massachusetts, and especially with Boston, as Martha Coakley is:

• Her campaign spelled Massachusetts incorrectly in a recent advertisement.
• She suggested that Catholics shouldn’t work in emergency rooms…in a state that is 39% Catholic.
• She called former Red Sox (great) pitcher Curt Schilling a “Yankees fan”.

In a city where baseball is a religion, Coakley’s words are blasphemy.  On his own blog, Schilling says “I’ve been called a lot of things… But never, and I mean never, could anyone ever make the mistake of calling me a Yankee fan. Well, check that, if you didn’t know what the hell is going on in your own state maybe you could…."  Just for fun, here are a few sentences about Schilling from his Wikipedia entry:

On September 16, 2004, Schilling won his twentieth game of the season for the Red Sox, becoming the fifth Boston pitcher to win 20 or more games in his first season with the team, and the first since Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley in 1978. Schilling ended his regular season with a 21–6 record.

On October 19, 2004 Schilling won Game 6 of the 2004 American League Championship Series against the New York Yankees. Notably, he won this game playing on an injured ankle - the same injuries that contributed to his disastrous outing in Game 1 of the ALCS. These injuries were so acute that by the end of his performance that day his white sock was soaked with blood. Debate exists regarding the validity of Schilling’s bloody sock, with some contending that it was a fake stunt meant to garner attention. The win forced a Game 7, making the Red Sox the first team in MLB history to come back from a three-games-to-none deficit. The Red Sox would go on to win Game 7 and the ALCS and make their first World Series appearance since 1986. Schilling pitched (and won) Game 2 of the 2004 World Series for the Red Sox against the St. Louis Cardinals. In both series, he had to have the tendon in his right ankle stabilized repeatedly, in what has become known as the Schilling Tendon Procedure, after the tendon sheath was torn during his Game 1 ALDS appearance against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. As in Game 6 of the ALCS, Schilling’s sock was soaked with blood from the sutures used in this medical procedure, but he still managed to pitch seven strong innings, giving up one run on four hits, and striking out four. This second bloody sock was placed in the Baseball Hall of Fame after Boston’s victory over St. Louis in the World Series. A 4-game sweep of the World Series gave Boston its first World Series championship since 1918.

Coakley is one foot-in-mouth  moment after another.  But it’s not just those gaffes which should concern voters.

She under-reported assets on a federal disclosure form.

Also, while there is legitimate debate on how the handled the case, the publicity on Coakley’s treatment of an apparent pedophile priest, John Geoghan, can’t be good for her in the race. Coakley prosecuted and convicted the priest he was reported to have squeezed a boy’s butt one time but gave him probation several years later when three grade-school-aged brothers “told investigators that Geoghan had inappropriately touched them during numerous visits to their Waltham home, and had made lewd telephone calls to them.”

The effect of all this is that Brown is having to pay union workers – a must-have and usually in-the-pocket vote for Democrats – to appear to support her, while at least one and probably many more of those union members are taking the money, holding the Coakley signs, and heading off to vote for Scott Brown.

Really, what percentage of Boston union workers do you think are Catholic Red Sox fans?  I’d bet it’s more than half.  Those people might vote for Brown, probalby won’t vote for Coakley in any decent numbers. And even their union brothers, maybe not Catholic or, less likely, not Red Sox fans, will also probably just not vote in Tuesday’s election.  Even a union member who is not a Catholic nor a Red Sox fan will want to be able to honestly say to his rabid Fenway brethren that he didn’t support Coakley either.

If Martha Coakley loses this election after being more than a 90% betting favorite to win, she’ll have nobody but herself to blame and her career in Democratic Party politics, which is to say her career in politics, is finished.  Couldn’t happen to a nicer lady.  Not.

Meanwhile, Boston Mayor Tom Menino (who probably owes Coakley a small favor for her hesitancy in investigating the illegal deletion of e-mails in Menino’s office)  is trying a new tactic: Appealing to black voters to vote for Coakley as a way to support Barack Obama.  This morning, according to the AP, Menino told a black church congregation that “if Democrat Martha Coakley loses the U.S. Senate race in Massachusetts, it will be a victory for people who want President Barack Obama to fail."  (Quote from AP article which appears to be representing the meaning of Menino’s words rather than his exact words.)

It’s an interesting approach given how Obama has become a major negative for Democrats, a ball and chain on their electability.  There’s a reason that Menino is only trying this tactic at a black Church.  Given the Coakley gaffes and the fact that this election has tremendous state focus, Obama is likely to be a non-factor in this race outside the black community.  Blacks represent only 7% of Massachusetts voters.  While black voting rates increased for the 2008 election of Barack Obama, I doubt they will see Coakley as a proxy for Obama in this race; I doubt they will be highly motivated to get out and vote for her.  And while blacks don’t tend to be Catholic, some percentage of Massachusetts’ blacks must also be Red Sox fans…bad news for Martha Coakley.

You can volunteer for (even from out of state) and contribute to Scott Brown’s campaign at:
http://brownforussenate.com/