McCain VP pick coming soon?

Wednesday update: Today, John Fund of the Wall Street Journal offers the following. "Barack Obama may be grabbing headlines overseas, but John McCain's campaign knew exactly how to grab a few of its own this week. His staff apparently encouraged a report that the Arizona senator was on the verge of stealing a march on Mr. Obama by announcing the name of his vice presidential running mate. Columnist Robert Novak reported that Mitt Romney was the most likely front-runner.

The report got the requisite attention and also may have been a useful trial balloon. But, so far, no veep announcement has been forthcoming and, indeed, one isn't likely before the GOP convention in late August. Mr. Novak now says his report may have been "a dodge" the McCain campaign planted to get some buzz.

"I got a suggestion from a very senior McCain aide . . . that he was going to announce it this week" and that the campaign "suggested I put it out." Mr. Novak says he now suspects "they were trying to get a little publicity to rain on Obama's campaign. That's pretty reprehensible if it's true."

But the Washington Times reports that "Mr. McCain and his top aides didn't seem to mind leaving the story unaddressed and unchecked." In fact, when reporters finally confronted him on his Straight Talk Express campaign plane, he played coy. "What do you want, you little jerks?" Mr. McCain said with a smile before waving off any questions.

Mr. McCain used to be lionized by the national media before Barack Obama came around and became the new, new thing. Now the Arizona senator is reduced to fighting for attention any which way he can. On the issue of his VP choice, chalk up one slightly ugly media victory for Team McCain."

Over at Human Events, Robert Novak says "Sources say McCain Veep Pick to Come This Week".

And at CNN, we have this: "One source tells CNN that “no decision has been made” by the candidate. Another says that some within the campaign are arguing to hold off until Obama has named his decision “so there is an opportunity to counter-program.” In any case, a campaign source adds, this does mean that the choice has been “narrowed” in McCain’s mind to the point where he could, if he were so inclined, spring a decision this week."

There's been a lot of talk about Mitt Romney lately, and there's no doubt that McCain could use the additional business and economics bona fides on the ticket. Still, McCain absolutely must get a good chunk of the middle to win and that means a good chunk of suburban women. Although Romney's good looks might get him a few votes, I still think his being a Mormon is a substantial negative, especially with women. Like it or not, most Americans know very little about the religion and the little they know strikes them as somewhere between non-mainstream, a bit odd, and a cult. Although Romney's religion would get less scrutiny with him as a VP choice than as the Presidential nominee, I still think Romney would be a very risky selection. I'm also not convinced that the personal distaste between the men from the presidential debates and nominating process has dissipated sufficiently for them to play well together.

McCain will certainly consider taking a woman for the reasons mentioned above, but if he does, he must make sure she's someone so exceptionally qualified that he doesn't appear to simply be pandering for the votes of women.

Over at intrade.com, Romney is the betting favorite, at about 36%, with a few possibilities trading between 10% and 15%: Starting at 15% and moving down to 10%, we have Sarah Palin (Governor of Alaska), Tim Pawlenty (Governor of Minnesota), Charlie Crist (Governor of Florida), and Bobby Jindal (Governor of Louisiana).

My guess is that Palin, while a woman, is not well known and is from Alaska and therefore doesn't bring enough electoral votes with her, especially since Alaska is unlikely to go Democrat anyway.

Pawlenty seems like a decent guy, but he can't even bring his own state.

Charlie Crist helped McCain substantially in getting the nomination and is from a very important state, so I think he's a likely choice.

Bobby Jindal would be the most daring choice, but I think choosing him would appear to be desperation to get someone who isn't white on the ticket. Also, although Jindal is absolutely excellent, given McCain's age people will be looking at McCain's VP choice as someone who really might become President, and I think Jindal will be perceived to be not quite ready for that yet.

Of the top 5 highest odds on intrade for McCain's likely choice, I think the best guess is Charlie Crist. I think Romney is great except for his religion, but I think that's too big a negative to overcome.

  • Ted
    Comment from: Ted
    07/22/08 @ 08:47:57 am

    Here’s the theme song when Sarah Palin makes her Veep center stage appearance at the Republican National Convention later this summer:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWNtLt-pJik

    Oh, and yes it IS gonna be Palin. McCain’s already got this new ad up which essentially announces Palin as his pick (without ever having to mention her name).

    It’s even got the McCain/Palin campaign slogan vs. Obama: “Don’t hope for new energy, vote for it.” –-

    http://www.breitbart.tv/?p=135403

  • Greg Staff
    Comment from: Greg Staff
    07/22/08 @ 10:20:52 am

    I agree with you, Ross, I think Crist is it... and not to be too cynical, I think that's why Crist recently got married. There were rumors about his sexual orientation, but the marriage will help put those to rest.
    Crist is also a popular governor in a big state that McCain needs. That being said, I would like him to pick someone that will help him in Ohio....

  • Sam
    Comment from: Sam
    07/22/08 @ 11:22:03 am

    It will not be Crist. This will be seen as a desperate pick. McCain
    will win Florida, thus he does not need Crist. Rumors of Crist
    being a bisexual, will still be out there, notwithstanding his recent
    marriage. I awlays thought the pick would be South Dakota
    Senator John Thune, but that seems a longshot now. I say its
    either Romney or Palin

  • Mike DePinto
    Comment from: Mike DePinto
    07/22/08 @ 12:30:09 pm

    I don't think anyone can help McCain at this point. Obama will have to really step in **it at this point to lose this election. I'm also guessing McCain goes with Palin. She has approval ratings in the 80's, she's young, and, her gender will help with bring in women voters. McCain has to do something about his pasty, white-man image and this is probably the best he can do.

  • J David
    Comment from: J David
    07/22/08 @ 03:51:39 pm

    Aside from his "religion"...and a lifelong enthusiastic support of baby-killing, the virtually bankrupt "RomneyCare"(socialized medicine already in the tank after less than a year), his willing allowance into law of the oxymoronic attempts to join opposable parts in "Holy Matrimony", his extreme reluctance to use, or identify with words like "Republican" and "conservative" while running for and winning "governor" of the most LIBERAL state in the Union(happy home of Ted Chappiquidick Kennedy) Romney would be a great one to salvage the GOP(RINO Party)for conservative small-government principles!

  • susan boyer
    Comment from: susan boyer
    07/22/08 @ 07:47:58 pm

    His Mormonism not withstanding, Romney would bring three positives to the McCain campaign: an understanding of economics, the ability to entice many conservatives who were going to stay home back in the fold and Michigan. Picking a woman would be a mistake(obvious pandering) and he doesn't need Crist to win FL.

  • Mary
    Comment from: Mary
    07/30/08 @ 01:28:31 am

    I realize that since last week, we found out this was just the rumor mill at work, but I'm still watching and waiting to see if McCain picks Romney. I'm having a very hard time seeing myself voting for him without a conservative to balance his liberal RINO tendencies. Romney would be far and away the choice of conservatives. His religion is not nearly the issue with most conservatives, including Christians, that the press makes it out to be. Being evangelical and very conservative myself, I have no qualms about a good, moral Mormon holding high office--I'm voting for a Vice President, not a vice pastor. My evangelical and Catholic friends feel the same way, it's just not a problem. And just because Mitt has changed some of his views in recent years, big deal--so have I! It's part of maturing in the political process. Mitt is a financial genius, which we need in this economic and energy crisis we are in. His energy plan was fantastic, way above any other offered by candidates during the primaries. Crist gives me a bad feeling--not that he's a bad guy, but he's just too slick and his sexuality does create problems with most conservatives. Pawlenty is also a good guy, but he doesn't appeal to conservatives nearly as much and he's not as recognizable in the conservative movement. I'd rather eat shards of glass than vote for Huckabee, he's a shifty politician. Only Romney is likely to make conservatives pull the lever with enthusiasm, even if it's only because we hope Mitt will be president in a few years. The liberal tempest-in-a-teapot McCain needs Romney. Let's hope he's smart enough, and mature enough, to establish a winning ticket and go with him.

  • Comment from: Rossputin
    07/30/08 @ 07:40:08 am

    Mary,
    Do you think evangelicals would vote for a ticket that includes a Mormon?

  • Jane McKechnie
    Comment from: Jane McKechnie
    08/29/08 @ 01:24:55 pm

    I am a registered Republican, but will not vote for McCain. His selection of Sarah Palin was a desperate choice. Mitt Romney should have been on the ticket.

  • Comment from: Rossputin
    08/29/08 @ 01:30:52 pm

    Jane,

    Please elaborate why you think it was desperate.

    I think it looks pretty good at first glance.

    I liked Romney, too, but he was far from a perfect choice, especially since he'd give the Dems a chance to say they just want to do to the nation's health care system what Romney did to Massachusetts, as Deroy Murdock argued at the Human Events web site the other day.

    If you were going to vote for McCain if he picked Romney, you should certainly vote for him with the Palin choice.

    Are you Mormon?

    Ross

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