Rossputin.com Rational Thinking About Our World

Last Friday, Politico.com reported that President Obama will announce in the upcoming State of the Union speech a new focus on spending discipline and deficit reduction.

[Ed: Pause a few seconds here to allow readers to stop laughing.]

Even the somewhat left-leaning Politico was repeatedly skeptical in their article, noting that “it will be tough for many Democrats to sell themselves as deeply concerned about spending after voting for the stimulus, the bailouts, the health care legislation and a plan to address global warming, four enormous government programs.”

One of the more interesting implications of such a statement by Obama, regardless of how laughable, is its implications for cap-and-trade legislation, which even supporters acknowledge will involve very large amounts of government spending.

An Obama statement that he wants to focus on deficit reduction will give Senators (the House has already voted and passed a bill) leeway to vote “no” that they might not otherwise have had. In other words, if Obama claims to want to reduce spending and deficits, he substantially decreases the chances of cap-and-trade passing.

One angle which Politico didn’t mention, and which might be too scheming even for this jaded viewer of politics, is that cap-and-trade is known by the Administration not to have enough votes in the Senate to pass and that they are looking for a graceful way out of the failure of their second biggest legislative priority (after the destruction of our health care system.)

Of course, a Democratic Congress and a Democratic president are even less likely to cut spending than were a Republican Congress and Republican president (whose massive spending was part of the reason for their well-deserved electoral thumpings in 2006 and 2008).

If Barack Obama actually tries to force spending cuts, I’ll gladly support him in that (while noting that it will be impossible for him, even if he were to get a lot done in that area, to cut even a modest fraction of the spending increases he has already put in place.)  That said, I don’t believe he will offer more than lip service to spending cuts and I don’t believe he will use much political capital to try to force the hand of House and Senate leaders to whom he has so far ceded all responsibility and leadership for his policy agenda.

The most likely outcome of Obama claiming to want to reduce spending is several million citizens having a good laugh.  During such tough economic times, I suppose that’s better than nothing.