Predictions for tomorrow’s primaries:

In Tuesday’s Colorado primaries, we have some very interesting and truly contested contests. I’m going to go with modest longshots in each of my three predictions, in no small part because they’re the outcomes that I’m hoping for:

CO-2: Although Jared Polis and I basically don’t agree on anything, he is at least a decent guy, based on the few minutes that we’ve spent discussing issues…again, essentially without finding any common ground other than on some social issues.

Of the people I know who have worked with Joan Fitz-Gerald, not a single one has anything nice to say about her…and that includes Democrats. I consider her “Hillary Clinton without the personal warmth.” And as even the left-leaning Denver Post editor Bob Ewegen notes, Fitz-Gerald is essentially owned by unions. Since the most destructive influence in American society in the past few decades has been the rise in power of teachers’ unions, I believe Fitz-Gerald is a disaster waiting to happen to our children. At least Polis has some real experience dealing with education. And while I wish Polis were pro-voucher, as ads by his union opponents incorrectly claim, at least he’s not anti-child which is the effective position of anyone who supports the NEA and CEA.

Finally, I like that Polis has a lot of money even though I don’t understand why someone that rich would be such a liberal. At least he can be independent in his decision-making, unlike career politician and bureaucrat Fitz-Gerald who will always be beholden to unions and special interests to put food on her table.

Ewegen is right that union support for Fitz-Gerald is a big plus for her electoral chances. And he’s right that Will Shafroth’s candidacy will certainly hurt Polis more than Fitz-Gerald. Also, Fitz-Gerald’s team has a lot more nuts-and-bolts political experience than Polis’s campaign. Still, I’ll go with Polis in the hope that enough people know Joan Fitz-Gerald well enough to know they don’t want the Wicked Witch of the West representing them in Congress. (And that includes me, as CO-2 is, unfortunately, the congressional district I live in.)

CO-5: This is another modest longshot, but I’ll go with Jeff Crank…again, someone I have supported. It’s very difficult to unseat an incumbent. I’m confident Crank would win if Bentley Rayburn had honored his pledge to drop out of the race if it were clear he couldn’t win. But, as I predicted on my blog, he reneged on that pledge. So there’s a real likelihood that this will cause the anti-Lamborn vote to be split, leaving Lamborn the winner in the same way he won in 2006.

I supported Jeff Crank in 2006 as well. In this campaign, he has removed any doubt I had about his absolute solidity as a fiscal conservative. I believe CO-5 voters, who tend to be more conservative than I am, could trade up from Lamborn to Crank without losing any conservative bona fides, while getting a man who actually understands the district’s issues and is unlikely to leave threatening voice mail messages for constituents who criticize him, as Lamborn has.

I have some hope that enough people in the Colorado Springs area realize that Lamborn, even if he votes the right way on most issues, is basically an embarrassment and a perfect example of The Peter Principle in action. (For those who don’t know, The Peter Principle basically says that people tend to rise to the level of their incompetence, the idea being that once they get to a job they’re no good at, they don’t get promoted again.)

In my opinion…and this is only my opinion…Lamborn sleazed and probably cheated his way to his 2006 victory. And, as I say frequently, while politics ain’t beanbag, I don’t like to see that sort of behavior rewarded.

My real fear is that my prediction of Rayburn’s effect (a prediction I’ve shared with General Rayburn many times) comes true.

CO-6: While I have not supported any candidate in the race, I’m going to go with the modest longshot of Wil Armstrong. I like his energy and his entrepreneurial experience, having been involved in running businesses as diverse as banks and technology companies. While I greatly honor Mike Coffman’s service to the country, and while I understand that he probably feels like this is his best chance to get where he’s wanted to go for many years, I can’t help but feel that he’s abandoning the Secretary of State’s critical election functions to Democrats in a most important election year.

Either Armstrong or Coffman will likely make a good representative for the district, but I prefer someone who isn’t a career politician. I don’t expect either to be a Lamborn-like embarrassment. And while Coffman has to be considered the favorite because of his wide name recognition and venerable service to the state, I’ll predict an Armstrong victory simply because I’d like to see one and hope that others see the situation the same way I do.