Primary election prediction contest results
[NOTE: The results below are based on the votes counted during the normal ballot process. I’ll probably update the numbers and spreadsheet in a couple of weeks when the state has included the numbers from all provisional and military ballots (if I can find that data). This won’t change the results substantially, I presume.]
Drum roll, please…
OK, the person for whom I must buy the first beer as the most accurage guesser of Tuesday’s primary election results is…
Me!
My total absolute error (the sum of the amount I missed by on the three major races combined) was 6.4%.
In second place was “Segosouth” with a total error of 10.9% and Bill J in a close 3rd with 11.2%.
In terms of guessing just the Republican races, Segosouth was the winner, with honorable mention to Tim B. They each missed just the GOP races by a total about 1.5%. But both guessed Romanoff victories, which ended their chances of winning the overall prediction. Segosouth was the only player to come within 1% in two different races.
Bringing up the rear, with a total error of 27.2% was Airbus, who should perhaps stick to airplanes and videos rather than prognistication, though we of course appreciate his enthusiasm. ;-)
In each race:
Norton/Buck: Best guess was by me, Worst guess Robert H. Segosouth had the 2nd-best guess.
McInnis/Maes: Best guess “JD", Worst guess Eric W and Chris R. Three-way tie for 2nd-best guess.
Bennet/Romanoff: Best guess Chris R, Worst guess Airbus. I had the 2nd-best guess.
Average error in each race: Norton/Buck 3.96, McInnis/Maes, 3.41, Bennet/Romanoff 7.83
I did have one of the worst guesses on the governor undervote, which doesn’t figure into the above result. In that category, the winner was David Williams, followed closely by Eric W, who missed the actual 4.75% undervote by just under and just over 3%, respectively.
The two tables of data (guesses and errors are below for your perusal.)
I’d enjoy getting together sometime soon with whoever wants to in order to have a pint and talk politics, or perhaps talk about life, the universe, and everything.
| Norton | 197,143 | 48.42% | Buck | 209,967 | 51.58% |
| McInnis | 191,209 | 49.31% | Maes | 196,560 | 50.69% |
| Bennet | 183,521 | 54.21% | Romanoff | 155,016 | 45.79% |
| Undervote | 95.25% |
| ACTUAL | -3.15% | -1.380% | 8.42% | 95.25% |
| Norton | McInnis | Bennet | Gov % | |
| Average Guess | -1.95 | 0.83 | 0.66 | 73.10 |
| Error of Avg | 1.203 | 2.208 | -7.765 | -22.145 |
| PREDICTIONS | ||||
| Players | Norton | McInnis | Bennet | Gov % |
| Ross K | -2.75 | 1.35 | 5.15 | 60.7 |
| Christopher S | 2 | 2 | 5 | 55 |
| Greg B | 3 | 2 | -2 | 88 |
| Airbus | 3 | -8 | -6 | 35 |
| Brian | 0.75 | 3 | 4 | 75 |
| Tim B | -2 | -1 | -3 | 75 |
| Brian W | -2 | -4 | 1 | 80 |
| Chuck M | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 65 |
| Jeremy I | -4.9 | 1.3 | -2.8 | 86 |
| Segosouth | -4 | -2 | -1 | 62.5 |
| Robert H | -11.5 | 6 | 2 | 68 |
| JD | -7 | -1.5 | -0.5 | 72 |
| Brian Oc | -8.5 | -4.4 | -1.2 | 62.5 |
| Joe H | -5 | -3 | -1 | 90 |
| Keith D | 2.5 | 4 | -1.5 | 72 |
| J | -1 | -1 | -1 | |
| Bill J | 1.25 | 1.25 | 4.25 | 62.5 |
| Keith O | -11 | 4 | 4 | 62 |
| Julie | -6.2 | -2.3 | -3 | 76 |
| Eric W | 1 | 7 | 5 | 98 |
| Shawn M | -5 | -3 | -3 | 75 |
| Val M | -6 | -1 | -3 | |
| Ben D | -0.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 82.5 |
| Megan B | 2 | 5 | 3 | 80 |
| Chris R | 4 | 7 | 7 | 75 |
| Daniel H | 3 | 2.5 | -1 | |
| David W | 0.7 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 92 |
| Ben L | -5 | 2.5 | -1 | 83 |
| Angela | 2 | 1 | 4 | 68 |
| ERRORS | |||||
| Norton | McInnis | Bennet | Gov % | TOT w/o Gov | |
| Ross K | 0.40 | 2.73 | 3.27 | 34.55 | 6.40 |
| Christopher S | 5.15 | 3.38 | 3.42 | 40.25 | 11.95 |
| Greg B | 6.15 | 3.38 | 10.42 | 7.25 | 19.95 |
| Airbus | 6.15 | 6.62 | 14.42 | 60.25 | 27.19 |
| Brian | 3.90 | 4.38 | 4.42 | 20.25 | 12.70 |
| Tim B | 1.15 | 0.38 | 11.42 | 20.25 | 12.95 |
| Brian W | 1.15 | 2.62 | 7.42 | 15.25 | 11.19 |
| Chuck M | 4.15 | 3.38 | 6.92 | 30.25 | 14.45 |
| Jeremy I | 1.75 | 2.68 | 11.22 | 9.25 | 15.65 |
| Segosouth | 0.85 | 0.62 | 9.42 | 32.75 | 10.89 |
| Robert H | 8.35 | 7.38 | 6.42 | 27.25 | 22.15 |
| JD | 3.85 | 0.12 | 8.92 | 23.25 | 12.89 |
| Brian Oc | 5.35 | 3.02 | 9.62 | 32.75 | 17.99 |
| Joe H | 1.85 | 1.62 | 9.42 | 5.25 | 12.89 |
| Keith D | 5.65 | 5.38 | 9.92 | 23.25 | 20.95 |
| J | 2.15 | 0.38 | 9.42 | 11.95 | |
| Bill J | 4.40 | 2.63 | 4.17 | 32.75 | 11.20 |
| Keith O | 7.85 | 5.38 | 4.42 | 33.25 | 17.65 |
| Julie | 3.05 | 0.92 | 11.42 | 19.25 | 15.39 |
| Eric W | 4.15 | 8.38 | 3.42 | 2.75 | 15.95 |
| Shawn M | 1.85 | 1.62 | 11.42 | 20.25 | 14.89 |
| Val M | 2.85 | 0.38 | 11.42 | 14.65 | |
| Ben D | 2.35 | 3.58 | 6.62 | 12.75 | 12.55 |
| Megan B | 5.15 | 6.38 | 5.42 | 15.25 | 16.95 |
| Chris R | 7.15 | 8.38 | 1.42 | 20.25 | 16.95 |
| Daniel H | 6.15 | 3.88 | 9.42 | 19.45 | |
| David W | 3.85 | 2.48 | 6.12 | 3.25 | 12.45 |
| Ben L | 1.85 | 3.88 | 9.42 | 12.25 | 15.15 |
| Angela | 5.15 | 2.38 | 4.42 | 27.25 | 11.95 |
| Print article | This entry was posted by Rossputin on 08/11/10 at 06:25:38 am . Follow any responses to this post through RSS 2.0. |
Yours truly
-
Following Obama's Economic Policies
Facebook NetworkedBlogs
XML Feeds
08/11/10 @ 07:54:57 am
Russ,
Your error rate may habe been good but the only winner you picked was Bennet.
08/11/10 @ 07:59:56 am
J,
My name is Ross, and I also picked Buck to win, not Norton. In fact, as you can see (twice) in the note, I had the best guess in that particular race.
Ross
08/11/10 @ 09:41:08 am
Don't be so sensitive Russ (lol). Couldn't help myself. I am always open for a pint or 2 when you are downtown in Denver or whenevere we can get out. The real fun should begin with Tancredo and Maes going at it. Should be a fun few months.
08/11/10 @ 10:27:23 am
Ross,
If we were at the racetrack, I would walk away with significantly more money than you.
I picked 3 out of 4 winners.
You picked 2 out of 3 winners. You only picked one Republican race winner. I picked 3 Republican race winners.
The one I missed was the Democratic race; you sure have the Dems figured out.
Personally, I would have used the can during that race.
08/11/10 @ 10:30:49 am
You are correct, you did pick Buck not Norton. I must have been confused as you have been stumping for Norton the last 2 months. You should have voted for her.
08/11/10 @ 10:34:14 am
J,
First, do you always bet on the team you want to win even if you think that team is going to lose?
Second, as I said, I became rather less pleased with the Norton campaign recently.
Third, the "contest" was very simple...whoever gets closest to the total error on the three primary races. I can't believe you're complaining that you didn't beat me. Get over it.
Fourth, I missed the GOP race by 2%, hardly a huge error.
08/11/10 @ 10:41:57 am
I picked Maes, Buck, Stapleton and Romanoff.
3 out of 4 winners. Blue ribbons.
08/11/10 @ 10:44:21 am
The fact that you did not include Treasure shows that you do not understand how powerful that position has become and just how big of threat to liberty Carry Kennedy is.
08/11/10 @ 10:44:43 am
So what?
I would have picked Stapleton as well, if that had been one of the questions.
08/11/10 @ 10:47:05 am
J,
You're being ridiculous.
In fact, one rather well-connected political operative in the state says just the opposite in the sense that most of the Treasurer's functions have been usurped by the legislature.
I know you don't like losing, but give it a rest.
08/11/10 @ 03:07:31 pm
Great turn of the phrase, Ross: "disqualified v. unqualified..." to describe Scott. Maes will need more than arrogance (Mr. Tancredo, get out of this race!) to win in November. His primary need isn't Tancredo out of the race, but money and knowledge.