Rossputin.com Rational Thinking About Our World

A new Rasmussen Reports survey shows former Colorado Lt. Governor Jane Norton with a 12% lead over both Senator Michael “Who” Bennet (yes, Bennet has only one “t") in the 2010 elections and former Speaker of the (state) House, Andrew Romanoff.

Former State Senator Tom Wiens also polls ahead of both Bennet and Romanoff, by 6% and 5% respectively.

And Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck leads by 5% and 1% respectively.

There are two big messages here: First, Jane Norton is likely to be the GOP nominee.  I don’t know Mrs. Norton and do not have an opinion of her at this time.  I hope to meet with her next month.  If Mrs. Norton is at least “good enough” in the opinion of the Republican base who determine the party’s nominees, it’s unlikely that they would select a nominee which they like slightly better but who has a much lower chance of winning.  In other words, if Jane Norton is not Colorado’s version of Charlie Crist (and I have no reason to believe she would be), then she’ll be the nominee though she still has a lot of convincing to do of a skeptical GOP base and even more skeptical Tea Party movement, which is alive and well in Colorado.

Second, it’s remarkable that a Democratic challenger polls as well or better than a Democratic incumbent, but that’s the current situation between Andrew Romanoff and Michael “Who?” Bennet.  The fact that Romanoff can make a real argument that he should win the primary, that he’d have a better chance at winning the general election than Bennet would, is likely to keep him in the Senate race rather than jumping into the Governor’s race.  Not to mention the fact that Hickenlooper is almost certainly a stronger and more popular candidate for Governor than Romanoff would be, and that challenging the popular mayor could be a death sentence for Romanoff’s political career in Colorado.

Romanoff has been invisible for weeks now, letting other Democrats sort out their situations first.  However, staying silent for too long could hurt Romanoff in whatever he decides to do, making it look like he’s a pure opportunist and an indecisive one at that.  He should come out right away and announce his commitment to the Senate race.

I can imagine two thing still playing out in Romanoff’s mind:  One, it’s possible he really wants to be governor more than he wants to be a senator.  Two, if the Republican wins in Massachusetts next week, that could make the Senate race seem like a fool’s errand.  So, I wouldn’t be surprised if Romanoff waits until after the Massachusetts results before saying anything, but if he waits any longer than that, he will be damaging his chances to win anything with every passing hour.