I was an early fan of Ron Paul's candidacy and gave a small donation to his campaign. Since then, I have become less enamored of his shrillness on the war issue. It's not so much about disagreeing with him on it as about how it seems to be blocking his earlier very effective treatment of other policy areas (much as it's hard to hear Tom Tancredo talk about anything other than immigration).

Despite Ron Paul and Tom Tancredo being the only guys who regularly mention the constitution in their answers, Ron Paul's popularity is modest and Tancredo's is non-existent (on the national level, though I'm sure many people here in Colorado were sad to hear him say that he would not run for re-election to Congress).

I have seen Ron Paul poll at 7% in one poll of New Hampshire voters, but his nation polling levels seem to be hanging out at an all-time high of 3%.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Ron-Paul.html

So, it's quite amazing to me that Congressman Paul is (at the moment of writing this on 11/5) trading at about 8.5 on intrade.com
http://www.intrade.com/index.jsp?request_operation=trade&request_type=action&selConID=443007

That's higher than Fred Thompson, John McCain, or Mike Huckabee!

I think it's a great sale...and I'll probably try to sell some. It's a thinly traded contract, but the idea that Ron Paul has a better chance of getting the GOP nomination than Thompson or McCain is just silly.

[In case you're curious, at the moment of writing this Giuliani is trading around 40.5%, and Romney around 28.5%. On the Dem side, Hillary is up to 71.5% with Obama at 13%, Gore just over 6%, and Edwards around 5%. Remember, these are the chances of getting the parties' nominations, not the chances of becoming president. As far as that goes, Hillary is 47%, Giuliani only 16.75%, Romney just under 10%, and Obama around 6%. I still think Hillary is much more than 80% to be the Democratic nominee, as I've written for a long time, but I think Rudy is a buy at 16.8%, or almost 5:1 odds, to be the next president.]