A new survey by the Center for Rural Strategies shows substantial erosion of GOP support among rural voters.

The war in Iraq was cited as the most important issue by 38% of the respondents in the poll which "was conducted Oct. 22-24 among 500 likely voters living in rural parts of 41 contested congressional districts and six states with competitive Senate races."

The most important results of the poll are a 52% to 39% preference for Democratic candidates for the House over Republican candidates, and a 47% to 43% lead for Democratic Senate candidates, "reversing the 4-point lead Republican Senate candidates held among rural voters in mid-September."

The survey's authors note that the Senate results are within the poll's margin of error. To see the actual list of questions and tabulated responses, see:
http://www.ruralstrategies.org/projects/frequency_questionnaire2.doc

Of the 500 respondents, 190 identified themselves as Republican, and 137 as independent. 226 identified themselves as conservative, 188 as moderate, and only 69 as liberal.

(If you want to see the data summary, click HERE.)

In other words, this is a more-conservative-than-average sample of the population and they still seem to be leaning strongly toward the Democrats.

I continue to believe the GOP will lose control of the House on Election Day. If there is a surprise, I think it's more likely to be a worse defeat for the GOP than somehow keeping a majority.