Social Security: Will Bush cave?

There are rumors swirling that President Bush is willing to talk about ways to "fix" Social Security with "no preconditions".

I am truly frightened (as much as one can be about an economic policy) that Bush will prove to those few remaining blind GOP loyalists that he is no conservative. I hope I am wrong to be afraid.

Bush went longer than any President in history before vetoing a bill, and then finally found his veto pen to veto stem cell research. He could have vetoed McCain-Feingold which he said he knew was unconstitutional. He could have vetoed any of the many insane spending bills which have saddled current and future taxpayers with massive debt. And he could have vetoed the Medicare prescription drug benefit, which makes all the other spending look like small potatoes. But no, since Bush is a big-government religious radical, he did none of those things.

Those on the left believe that anyone who is for low taxes is a conservative and that anyone who is a religious Christian is conservative. And in a way they are right, but with two very different meanings of the word conservative.

The former use defines (these days, as the proper word is "liberal", as it was used generations ago) a person who believes in limited government and liberty. The latter defines a person who is rigid in his or her views, against change, and (these days) interested in using government to achieve what they can't through moral suasion, much as the left likes to do with their pet projects.

The public confuses the word conservative in that it lumps both these groups together. I am in the former group of conservatives and Bush is in the latter. In other words, if you are using the word "conservative" as it relates to a vision of the proper role of government, Bush is not one.

This brings us back to Social Security. One of the few things Bush has gotten right was his early focus on Social Security reform based on personal accounts, possibly including means-testing or indexing, and, read his father's lips, no new taxes.

Now we hear rumors (such as in this Wall Street Journal editorial) that Bush may be willing to consider tax increases in the form of raising the cap on the income on which FICA is paid, currently $90,000 a year. And he may do this while simultaneously giving up personal accounts, possibly in the interest of being able to say he did something about Social Security's problems.

There are many great reasons that this strategy would be a disaster for Social Security and for the country. Some of the financial details can be found in this research article by Heritage:
Raising the Social Security Payroll Tax Cap Does Not Fix Social Security

But beyond the fact that raising the payroll cap would only delay, not fix, Social Security's problems, there are other truly huge flaws in this idea.

One of the biggest is the disaster this will mean to small businesses and self-employed workers, who are the true economic engine of this country. If the cap is raised, these people are likely to be looking at marginal tax rates of over 50%. It will be throwing huge buckets of sand into the gears of that economic engine.

Another of the huge flaws is that it gets away from personal accounts. I believe the country has been swayed by the AARP's and the Democrats' and the unions' propaganda on this issue; people do not understand how devastating Social Security is to the country and particularly to lower income workers who are forced to save into a program which does not actually save the money, which provides a far worse return than even a CD at a bank, which is not able to be passed down to one's children, and which enables the government to partially mask their profligate spending.

[I have written at length about "Why Liberals (and Democrats) should support Social Security reform." You can read the blog posting HERE, or get the PDF version of the article. (Left-click to read, right-click to save.)]

Make no mistake, the Democrats and unions are desperate to prevent personal accounts for two main reasons: First, they keep power by funneling as much taxpayer money as possible through government and then claiming to be the providers of free goodies. If money were to stay in the private sector rather than go through their greedy fingers, they lose control of the ability to buy people's votes with their own money. And second, a person who has any investment portfolio, even if as small as a few hundred or few thousand dollars in a savings account, suddenly cares about good government. If bad government policy destroys the value of their investment, either through taxation, regulation, inflation, or currency devaluation, those voters get mad. Since the Democrats tend to do all those things (particularly the first two), it is in their interest to keep as many voters as possible from having any noticeable stake in any particular policy choice.

If Bush goes along with these thieves by either agreeing to raise the payroll tax cap or abandoning the idea of personal accounts within a reform package, he will not only have sealed his fate in my view as the worst President of my lifetime (with the possible exception of Jimmy Carter who at least had the virtue of not claiming to be a conservative), but he will have done massive damage to the economic future of our country.

  • Ben
    Comment from: Ben
    12/06/06 @ 01:30:04 pm

    You wrote:

    "Those on the left believe that anyone who is for low taxes is a conservative and that anyone who is a religious Christian is conservative. And in a way they are right, but with two very different meanings of the word conservative.

    The former use defines (these days, as the proper word is "liberal", as it was used generations ago) a person who believes in limited government and liberty. The latter defines a person who is rigid in his or her views, against change, and (these days) interested in using government to achieve what they can't through moral suasion, much as the left likes to do with their pet projects."

    I think you have confused and oversimplified the issue with this statement here. Religious Christians fall on different parts of the political spectrum on a host of issues and cannot be defined into a narrow box. It's not even true of all those who fit into the broad heading of "the Religious Right."

    I am a strong religious conservative and a strong believer in limited government and liberty. I do not see this as inconsistent in the least, nor did many of the nation's Founders. That I may happen to agree with many social conservative groups on certain political issues does not mean I refrain from criticizing other stances or tactics of theirs.

    My thinking and beliefs are based in a consistent and coherent philosophy - my views are not so "rigid" that none of them can ever change, but like you I have a set of core principles that serves as the bedrock foundation for shaping my understanding & opinions.

    Finally, I believe it is in fact our nation's deep roots in the Judeo-Christian heritage that made limited government, religious pluralism, and strong republican institutions possible.

    But for the sake of time, I could further elaborate.

  • Comment from: Rossputin
    12/06/06 @ 01:40:12 pm

    Ben, please note that I was describing the way the Left uses the term "conservative". There is no doubt that many religious conservatives are also fiscal conservatives, but the left confuses the issue by calling them all conservatives.

  • Roy V. Dent
    Comment from: Roy V. Dent
    12/07/06 @ 03:54:37 pm

    Right on, Brother!!! You have nailed George Bush right on the button. I have spoken with his point man on Social Security ever since GW started trying to fix SS. George knows the truth, I know that for a fact. He is just bowing to the pressure to do the politically correct thing, according to his advisors. He is apparently now into the "legacy building" mode.

    I also concur with both you and David John about the effects of removing the FICA cap on taxation of earnings. I did my own computations, which is pretty elementary multiplication, addition and division. The difference between me and the "average bear" is that I know where to look for the pertinent data.

    I will give you some bottom line numbers. If we removed the FICA tax cap, the Social Security program would, in fact, receive much more money. The point at which cash flow deficits would first appear would be rolled back from 2017 to about 2023. (All of these numbers I will use are based on constant 2005 dollars.) I also assume that no additional SS retirement benefits will be paid to those who will have paid the extra taxes.

    From 2007 through 2022, the Treasury will receive about $1.4 Trillion of extra (surplus) FICA taxes. What will happen to this money? It will be spent to either reduce the national debt or to fund other programs. Why? Because that is the law. Will it help fund the Social Security deficits that will begin in about 2023 at about $3 billion, reach $109 billion in 2029, reach $160 billion in about 2033, reach about $$200 billion in 2040, and finally reach about $250 billion in about 2050? No, it will not help at all. I fact it will actually make things worse. All of this extra money coming into the Treasury will just enable politicians to build and bloat more programs in order to buy more votes over the years. Instead of helping, it will actually hurt our fiscal future. They are going to build-up programs that will be difficult to impossible to cut once the recipients get used to receiving the mooney> Then, when taxes need to be raised in order to pay all promised benefits, someone wis going to scream like a "stuck pig." (I did not have time to "clean up" some of the punctuation/spelling in this paragraph. OK, so I am human.)

    Again, these projected deficits are all in 2005 dollars. We would have cut the 2050 deficit from about $450 billion to about $250 billion. Will we have solved the problem? I do not think so.

    Sorry, Ross, I could not resist saying something about this.

    Roy V. Dent

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