The lying socialist versus the unwitting socialist
Last night's presidential debate was certainly John McCain's strongest performance yet.
He attacked Obama, if belatedly, and emphasized the difference between their records on spending.
But my reaction to the debate overall was "so what?", and I believe the debate was effectively a negative for McCain's electoral chances in the sense that he really needed a big win.
The town hall format should have benefited him, and he did reasonably well, but Barack Obama has clearly increased his speaking abilities in the absence of a teleprompter.
I watched the debate with my wife, a new American citizen, who is (in my opinion) of slightly more-than-average political and economic understanding, but neither economics nor politics is something she spends much time thinking about.
Her take was that Obama's positions are not smart, his delivery is very smooth and it's easy to imagine people who don't think about taxes or the economy much (until we're in a crisis) believing what he's selling.
She thought McCain's positions were mostly smarter, but he seemed like he could be Obama's grandfather and a time like this requires someone with a lot of energy.
My views were similar but stronger. Obama simply deflects or lies about some of his most important positions, such as claiming that he's not planning to massively increase spending and not admitting that much of his so-called "tax cut" is really socialism, i.e. the government paying money to low-income people by taking that money from high-income people. McCain specifically asked Obama how much he would fine employers who don't meet Obama's health care demands and Obama didn't answer.
It is rather remarkable how to what lengths Obama will go to refuse to admit that the surge was a success. I wonder if that implies anything about Obama's personality, i.e. being as bull-headed as people think McCain is.
Obama did not deny McCain's assertion that Obama has voted 94 times to support tax hikes or oppose tax cuts. That's something that should weigh heavily on peoples' opinions as they consider whether to believe Obama's claims that he'll cut taxes and not increase spending.
Neither candidate offered good answers on entitlement reform, but at least McCain said there should be reform and noted that fixing Social Security is theoretically an easier problem than fixing Medicare. He also noted that future benefits would have to be lower than current benefits. Obama offered a non-answer about stabilizing Social Security.
A truly important distinction between the candidates came when they were asked whether health care was a right or responsibility. McCain said the latter, Obama the former. This is a very big deal and deserved a lot more discussion during the debate. This idea that everything under the sun is a "right" because we're a rich country is precisely what will end up causing us to no longer be a rich country. It represents Obama at his most dangerous.
McCain had some very strong points when he argued about taxes and spending, but he said a few things which I thought were just terrible. First, he again blamed the current financial market troubles on Wall Street, which is not the primary source of the turmoil. (Later, he blamed it on the Democrats' coziness with Fannie Mae, but it was the third debate in a row where McCain or Palin let the Democrat blame this mess on deregulation, whereas the real cause was anything but deregulation.)
Second, McCain said he'd order the Secretary of the Treasury to buy bad mortgages and then renegotiate them at "diminished home values". Not only is this socialist and a completely improper use of government, but it's also stupid. How many banks do you think will give mortgages knowing that the Secretary of the Treasury (or a judge, as Democrats would like to see) can simply change the terms of a loan...and not just the interest rate, but also the principal amount due.
Third, McCain went on a rant about the "danger of global warming gasses". Hasn't he noticed that the planet hasn't warmed in a decade? I've written enough about this subject, so I'll keep my critique here short and sweet: McCain's "cap and trade" legislation is a bigger threat to the American economy than Obama's tax and spend policies. McCain's legislative "solution" to something that isn't a problem will make the bailout's insertion of the government into our financial system look like outright laissez-faire.
Fourth, it turns my stomach every time McCain is proud of "reaching across the aisle" to Russ Feingold, Joe Lieberman, and Ted Kennedy. Every time he reaches across the aisle, our liberty is diminished. McCain bipartisanship is simply his trying to move conservatives to a liberal position, never the other way around.
McCain still seemed stronger than Obama on foreign policy, but Obama is getting sharper in that area as well, and people are much less focused on Afghanistan than on wondering whether their bank deposits are safe.
Unfortunately they didn't get to discussing free trade. McCain mentioned that Obama would be a protectionist and assumed a question would deal with the topic later, but that question never came. Obama's views on trade are not just stupid, they're dangerous. When you hear someone say the believe in trade that is "free and fair", just remember that their definition of "fair" almost certainly means something other than "free".
Overall, the debate was essentially dull. Tom Brokaw wasted a great opportunity to create an interesting event by choosing from what must have been some interesting questions submitted by the audience in the room and via the internet. Instead, he chose completely typical questions which turned the town hall into just another series of stump speech sound bites.
And a dull debate, even if you'd call it a tie in terms of pure debating points (or maybe even a modest win for McCain, though I'm sure Obama supporters could argue the other way), in election terms it was a win for Obama. He showed himself to be plausibly presidential and that was all he needed to do.
I continue to maintain that John McCain could have helped both his nation and his electoral chances by opposing the bailout, especially all the other junk that was attached to it.
My view has been slowly but surely crystallizing around what my gut instinct has been for most of the year. The economic crisis has cemented my view:
Obama will be a terrible president. His positions are anathema to fundamental American principles. But John McCain is not better enough to be supportable, particularly in the very important areas of economic understanding and "climate change". The GOP should be made to think that they can give us a candidate as flawed as John McCain and win. Furthermore, the economy is going to be bad for a couple of years. No politician will be able to help that. We might as well let the Democrats wear it. Yes, they'll work hard to say that the crisis started under a Republican president. But I don't think most voters are putting this at the feet of George W. Bush. Republicans will be able to make a strong case for tax cuts and spending cuts, and will do well in the 2010 elections.
Barack Obama stands a real chance of being the second Jimmy Carter. Maybe his presidency will be the catalyst for the appearance of the next Ronald Reagan who, while not without his flaws, was certainly the best president of my lifetime.
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10/08/08 @ 10:19:06 am
I have to admit I only skimmed the debate on tivo last night as I too found it quite dull. However, it was clear to me that neither of these candidates understands (or at a minimum will admit) why this financial crisis is happening. That is perhaps the scariest thing of all. How can either one of these candidates lead us out of this situation when neither knows how we arrived here? Obama's unsupported demonizing of deregulation as the culprit underscores his socialist approach to all economic issues. McCain, in painting Wall Street as corrupt, plays to main street America's anger about the crisis but at the expense of free market principles. At first, McCain began to attack Obama and the Dems for supporting "fair" housing initiatives leading to this debacle but quickly went into his own socialist diatribe on how the Treasury should write checks to the banks to reduce the principal owed by individuals on their homes. He believes that the Government stepping in and subsidizing the purchase price for people who bought homes they could not afford will "stabilize" the housing market. We have lost all semblance of the free market due to the fear created by this crisis. The GSE's ability to borrow money at Government backed rates and then loaning it out at rates that did not reflect the prevailing market risk lead to this current Government intervention in the financial system. What a mess! Both of these candidates are unprepared or unwilling to stop the Government from "helping" us and that should scare all of us.
10/08/08 @ 11:57:47 am
Ross I quoted you last night while watching, in my opinion, a very dull and uneventful debate.
"I wish they'd both lose".
I kept thinking about how much more fun it would be if even Huckabee were up there. At least the debates would be entertaining.
Julie
10/08/08 @ 12:24:29 pm
Ross,
Your last two paragraphs sum up my own position(though put in a much less abusive and abrasive way than I consistently put it)pretty well..."Why hang this massive, steaming pile of FAIL that is the next two years around the neck of the GOP?"
I have one vote, why waste it on the Soros-owned faux Republican, when I have other alternatives more Constitutional? I am not going to reward the RINO Party for their abject moral retardation by choosing the worst of all of the possible primary runners and foisting him off on the conservative base.
...And, four years of being identified with the faux "Republican" will ruin the Palin/Jindal ticket in '12...
10/08/08 @ 08:34:19 pm
It's hard to imagine a worse choice, though Ford v Carter comes to mind...
McCain considers a policy to violate the rule of law by arbitrarily altering real estate contracts to be some kind of badge of honor.
Obama considers healthcare a right of existence. (Question: If it's someone else's right, guess whose financial responsibility it is?).
Both blame the home mortgage crisis on Wall Street greed, golden-parachute-grabbing CEOs, and speculators, which begs the question, "Are either of them smart enough, honest enough, or intellectually curious enough to be President?
Obama claims his monumental expansion of gov't won't cost anyone making less than $250K a dime, while McCain doesn't call him on the obvious deception. Which one is dumber, the liar or the one who can't figure out the lie?
McCain negotiates away his principles and calls it "reaching across the aisle", while Obama's words don't match his actions, indicating he doesn't have any principles.
Which one should be President? Neither, but one of them will be.
*In a democracy, the people ultimately get exactly the gov't they deserve, and sometimes they get it good and hard. I fear this is one of those times.
10/08/08 @ 10:35:27 pm
"Obama did not deny McCain's assertion that Obama has voted 94 times to support tax hikes or oppose tax cuts. That's something that should weigh heavily on peoples' opinions as they consider whether to believe Obama's claims that he'll cut taxes and not increase spending"
Should it also weigh heavily on peoples' opinions that - using the same methodology used to come up with 94 - McCain himself has raised taxes nearly 500 times in his career, 105 times since Obama entered the Senate (http://www.johnmccainrecord.com/taxes/taxmyth.pdf)? Or do you only tolerate misrepresentations by the Republican candidates? Should it weigh heavily on peoples' opinions that John McCain wants a $3.6 trillion dollar tax increase on working folks health care benefits (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/01/us/politics/01mccain.html)? Or is it only Democratic plans that need to be funded by new taxes?
10/09/08 @ 06:21:38 am
Stranger,
I don't know how many times I have to say it, but I'm no fan of John McCain. His record on taxes isn't great, but (from the point of view of someone who doesn't like high taxes) it's much better than Obama's...especially with his relatively recent conversion to understanding the importance of making the Bush tax cuts permanent.
Second, as I understand the McCain health plan, it would be roughly a wash as far as those taxes because while health benefits from an employer would be taxed, employees would also be getting a tax credit which should offset the tax for all but the most expensive health insurance plans.
For people who don't have health coverage, the tax credit could be used to get it. My fear is that the credit won't be tied to getting health insurance which wouldn't be so bad if the credit weren't refundable. (Refundable means people who don't pay tax get paid by the government with other people's money.)
10/09/08 @ 08:35:48 am
"I don't know how many times I have to say it, but I'm no fan of John McCain. His record on taxes isn't great, but (from the point of view of someone who doesn't like high taxes) it's much better than Obama's...especially with his relatively recent conversion to understanding the importance of making the Bush tax cuts permanent."
Well then, perhaps you should cite some facts, rather than repeating things you hear from the McCain campaign - which you're supposedly not a fan of - because either the 94 number is bogus, or McCain has a worse record than Obama on taxes.
From the NY Times article:
"To end the disadvantage to those who do not buy insurance through employers, Mr. McCain proposes to eliminate the exclusion of health benefits from taxable income. In exchange, he would provide refundable tax credits of $2,500 to single people and of $5,000 to families, with the goal of stoking competition in the individual insurance market. The elimination of the exclusion would generate $3.6 trillion over 10 years, according to the McCain campaign, and that money would pay for the tax credits."
By "generate" of course, they mean a tax on health care benefits for the first time ever. The tax credit is paid for by the tax on folks with more expensive health plans. Talk about redistribution of wealth!
10/11/08 @ 05:46:22 am
Hey Ross i see that you say your wife is a new American citizen. My wife is not a American citizen. As she is a citizen of Malaysia and i at this time don,t want her to be a American citizen as i want her to be able to move back home if it gets real bad over here, I mean if Obama becomes President and it looks like he is. Then He will want to jack up tax rates so high and crash the economy.
There is a new law with expat that says if you leave the country and take your money they you will be subject to a 50% tax rate. I think it applies to anybody who is worth about one million. So that is one reason i will not let her be a American citizen.
10/11/08 @ 07:21:24 am
Hey Roger,
Believe me, I thought of that.
A few reasons I was OK with the decision:
1) My wife really wanted it, particularly so she knew she could stay in America with our kids if she wanted to if I got killed
2) Also, if I got killed, the free transfer of estate assets to the spouse only applies if the spouse is a citizen
3) If she did leave, the US would have a very hard time proving her income