A reader asked my take on last night’s Colorado caucus results, so I decided to just post my response here:

They don’t mean a lot, but…

Governor: McInnis 60% - Maes 39% was about as I expected because the Tea Party types don’t trust McInnis.  I’d expect McInnis to do better later esp. because Maes won’t raise nearly enough money.

Senate:  Buck 38% - Norton 38% - Wiens 16% - Tidwell 6%. Just slightly better for Ken Buck than I would have thought.  A lot will come down to whether Buck can raise money.  If his fundraising doesn’t improve from last quarter, he’s in a lot of trouble.  Norton can raise much more money and I think that will be a factor but she needs to solidify a perception that she’s not a female John McCain.  Wiens should get out but won’t because he has a big ego.  None of the others matter.

As far as money goes, it’s interesting that Norton has raised a lot more than Buck and that she spent nearly a quarter million dollars on ads going into the caucus but still reached a statistical tie with Buck.  That said, you can’t forget that the type of voter who goes to the caucus is not the same as the average voter, even the average primary election voter.

I note that Michael Bennet is saying “The real loser last night was Jane Norton". Put that together with a juvenille anti-Norton web site put together by the far-left Progress Now and it gives one a distinct sense that the Democrats fear running against Norton more than they fear running against Buck. Whether “electability” will become a major factor for either side remains to be seen. But like it or not, the name of the game is who can raise enough money to win. If both Buck and Norton can raise enough to win, then the issue goes away on the GOP side.  In terms of fundraising, it remains to be seen whether Buck can get close to Norton just as it remains to be seen whether Andrew Romanoff can get close to Michael Bennet.

Dems:  Romanoff 51% - Bennet 42%, not a big surprise. Essentially the same comment as Buck/Norton.  It’s going to be hard for Romanoff to raise even 1/4 of what Bennet raises.  There’s a pretty good chance that Bennet wins the assembly and primary.  But I love a good fight on the Dem side.  Make them wound each other and make them spend money.

You can see it coming already:  In e-mails I receiving during the few minutes of writing this note, Romanoff claims he has “Caucus Momentum” while Bennet says Romanoff “barely reached 50% in the most favorable political environment possible, dealing a serious blow to his candidacy.”

And just as the Democrats seem to think Norton will be the nominee, the Colorado GOP continues to pound Michael Bennet, with a note today basically saying that Bennet is lying when he claims to have “been in Washington only a year” (because Bennet was raised there and did some work for the Clinton Administration there.)  In other words, the parties know that the caucuses are of relatively minor importance in determining the nominee.

We’ll probably see much the same rhetoric on the GOP side unless Buck’s fundraising is so bad that he drops out, which I don’t see happening, especially if the caucus results cause some fence-sitting donors to write him some big checks.  If one of the candidates who can’t win does any real damage to one of the candidates who can win, especially with essentially false or irrelevant attacks, voters should consider whether that attacker should ever be supported in any future race.

To be clear, a serious horse race can be a good thing.  It can bring out the best in candidates.  And the GOP desperately needs people to understand that it has candidates who won’t just go to DC and behave as Republicans have behaved in recent years, i.e. during all of George W. Bush’s presidency.  So a “fair fight” primary could really give both Republican and independent voters something to vote for rather than just hoping that people will get out to vote against Democrats.  Voters will go out to vote against Democrats this time, but it’s a bad long term strategic foundation on which to build a majority.

On the Democratic side, while it might seem that Bennet is as leftist as a Senator could be, Romanoff will run to Bennet’s left.  This means that while Romanoff might rile up the left-wing fringe of the Democratic Party (not least unions) and its caucus- and assembly-attending activists, he will take positions on issues and force Bennet to take positions on issues which will be very unpopular with the broader electorate in November.

Therefore, I think that if the Dems and the GOP both have hard-fought primaries, the net effect is probably a positive for Republicans.  Then we just have to hope that Republicans are worth a damn.  The good news is that Colorado Republicans, from State Senators like Josh Penry and Greg Brophy, to Congressman Mike Coffman have shown themselves to be principled conservatives and excellent representatives of what the GOP should be – even when I disagree with them on individual issues.

I think Colorado is soon to go from a bluish-purple to a purplish-red…