Over at InTrade.com, the chances of the GOP taking back the Senate, i.e. picking up 10 seats or more, are trading around 18%, with a tie Senate, i.e. GOP picking up 9 seats, trading around 12%.

In order for either of these to happen, but particularly the former, the GOP needs not only to run the table on the races which either have a GOP incumbent running for re-election or in which the GOP candidate seems to be the front-runner already (such as Rand Paul in Kentucky), but they also need to win one or two much more difficult races, such as Washington State or California.

One other such race shows some good news for Republicans today with Rasmussen reporting for the first time that their poll shows Republican Ron Johnson ahead of far-left incument Democrat Russ Feingold in Wisconsin’s Senate race, even if only by 1%.  Wisconsin is quite a liberal state, at least in their voting history.  For someone like Feingold to be essentially tied shows just how horrible a year this is shaping up to be for Democrats.

Odds of a Republican House are now over 55%, and I think that’s still low…